Saturday, 9 July 2016

Is Ramadan the Deadliest Month?

Geert Wilders, who is someone I greatly respect, recently commented that Ramadan is the deadliest month. Daniel Greenfield, another person I greatly respect, also said the same thing.

I think it has become established in counter-jihadist circles that Islamic terrorism spikes during Ramadan so I thought I would put the hypothesis to the test. has been in the practice of  highlighting the deaths and casualties from Islamic terror during Ramadan and this may be one of the reasons that we have formed the view that terror spikes during this period.

It is important that we do not make claims which turn out to be false as this undermines our credibility with regard to other points of contention. I expected the hypothesis to be supported by the evidence but it isn't. What does emerge is that the high levels of attacks, deaths and injuries that we see during Ramadan are simply typical of the year as a whole.

I have used the data from to test the hypothesis since it is the most complete register of deaths and casualties from Islamic terror that I have access to.  There is no discernible pattern in relation to Ramadan that I can detect. I thought I would publish the charts so you can see for yourself.

When we look at the number of attacks and casualties by year we can see a general increase. This is likely to be the result of increasing numbers of attacks or it could be due to better reporting during recent years. The high levels in 2006 and 2007 would seem to belie that explanation. The would be the best people to make a judgement on this point.

Finally, Islamic attacks by month for the years Sep 2001 - Jul 2016

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